Issue №1, 2016

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Prediction of the demographic and educational processes on the territories of different levels

 

A. V. Smirnov, Institute for Socio-Economic and Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Energy Problems of the North Komi Research Center, (Syktyvkar, Russia)

Full article 

The article describes the method of long-term projections construction of the population in which modeling of demographic events happening at the micro level. The author offers prediction algorithm and its implementation scheme broken down by hierarchical levels. The developed model improves accuracy of the forecast and takes into account the additional characteristics of the population (number of children and educational level). Demographic projection with educational processes made it possible to predict the dynamics of the educational potential of the areas. Forecast of demographic development by 2050 at the regional and district levels was built on the example of the Komi Republic. It allows us to estimate the expected scale of the depopulation influenced by migration and natural movement of the population, as well as the dynamics of the sex and age composition and spatial distribution of the population. n addition, the model produces estimate of future changes in the republic's educational poten-tial. The author evaluated the contribution of various factors to the change in the demographic and educa-tional potential of the Komi Republic. The technique, which is offered in the article, can be easily adapted to create population projections of other regions and states. Results of the study are useful for creating pro-grams of the northern territories development, par-ticularly in the demographic and social fields.

Keywords: population projection, demography, education, migration, computer simulation, demo-graphic events, regions, Komi Republic.

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For citation: Smirnov A. V. Prediction of the demographic and educational processes on the territories of different levels // Corporate governance and innovative economic development of the North: Bulletin of the Research Center of Corporate Law, Management and Venture Capital of Syktyvkar State University. 2016. № 1. P. 146—155.