Issue №3, 2016

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Oscillatory processes in economic systems

 

N. V. Katargin, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russia)

Proposed methods for investigation of wave proper-ties of the economic variables of price series and indexes on the stock market and macroeconomic variables, for example GDP. View of correlogram of residuals after subtraction of trends allows to estimate the possibility of forecasting using waves. The Least-Squares Method with the Excel Solver allows to fit a sinusoid to time series. Cause of fluctuations of the variables in economic system may be the reaction of agents to the impact. Due to nonlinear reaction system can perform periodic oscillations for a long time, ending by the huge increase in the amplitude: disaster. Small random fluctuations significantly reduce the time before the crash.

 

Keywords: macroeconomics, fund market, fluctuations of economical variables, sinusoidal approximation, system with non-linear interactions, Monte-Carlo method

 

References

 

  1. Bogomolov A. I., Ivanus A. I., Nevezhin V. P. Upravlenie ekonomichesoi sistemoi na osnove ee fundamentalnih svoistv [Management of economical system based on its fundamental properties] // Corporate governance and innova-tive development of economy of the North: Bulletin of the research center of corporate law, management and venture investment of Syktyvkar state University, 2016. № 1. Р 21–28. (In Russ). Available at: http://vestnik-ku.ru/images/articles/2016/1/2.pdf (accessed: 15.09.2016).
  2. Katargin N. V., Tsvetkov A. V. Issledovanie avtokorrelyatsii visokih poryadkov v ryadah cen aktivov na fondovom rinke [Research of high order autocorrelations in the price series of assets in the stock market] // Mezhdunarodnii nauchnii zhurnal, 2011. № 4. Pp. 38–42.
  3. Peters E. Poryadok i haos na rinkah kapitala. : Mir, 2000. 336 р.

  

For citation: Katargin N. V. Oscillatory processes in economic systems // Corporate governance and innovative eco-nomic development of the North: Bulletin of the Research Center of Corporate Law, Management and Venture Capital of Syktyvkar State University. 2016. № 3. Р. 19–24.