Priorities of Using Modeling and Research Methods of Energy Systems Adaptation

DOI: 10.34130/2070-4992-2020-4-65

Sadov S. L. — Doctor of Economics, Leading Researcher, The Institute of Socio-Economic and Energetic problems of the North, Federal Research Center «Komi Scientific Centre of the Ural Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences», Syktyvkar, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Full article  (in Russian )

The article deals with the problem of using modeling tools, studying and forecasting the processes of adaptation of energy systems to the changing conditions of their development and functioning. The main purpose of the study was to substantiate the choice of adaptation modeling tools, which helps to overcome the negative impact of the uncertainty of the external environment. The task at hand requires not so much quantitative calculations as a qualitative analysis of the main aspects of adaptation. This is dictated by the uncertainty with which its factors are described. Therefore, classical optimization methods are not suitable here. Simulation modeling also requires accuracy, and, therefore, can’t become a methodological basis for solving the problem. In this regard, it is fruitful to refer to the division of models into "hard" and "soft" — in fact, the watershed between them resembles just the criterion of uncertainty. Hard models require a high degree of accuracy in the input data to produce accurate results. Such models are needed in engineering and physics. And soft models allow working with qualitative estimates, the results of their work are also of a qualitative character. In this connection they have found wide application wherever it is impossible to operate with exact values, including in economics. Among the methods that successfully work in the soft modeling, methods of the fuzzy sets theory, the analytical hierarchy process and the supramedian ranks method are considered. The theory of differential equations stands apart — its methods allow working with both hard and soft models. For this reason, it is recognized as the leading methodological framework for modeling the adaptation of energy systems. This conclusion is further confirmed by modeling the choice by the analytical hierarchy process. The article clarifies the concept of adaptation for technical and economic systems, the scope of application of hard and soft models. The selected methodological toolkit will be needed in further studies of the energy systems development at various levels.

Keywords: energy systems, adaptation, uncertainty, qualitative analysis of differential equations, analytical hierarchy process.

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For citation: Sadov S. L. Priorities of using modeling and research methods of energy systems adaptation // Corporate Governance and Innovative Economic Development of the North: Bulletin of the Research Center of Corporate Law, Management and Venture Investment of Syktyvkar State University. 2020. No. 4. Р. 65–73. DOI: 10.34130/2070-4992-2020-4-65